Greg here checking in for Part 3/3 on our series on shot charts. In partnership with Mikael Nahabedian, we are going to continue our shot quantity vs shot quality conversation. First, we covered Toronto vs CBJ, then more recently Boston vs Tampa.
Mikael is a scout & statistical analyst with the powerhouse McGill University woman’s program. He also consults for the Icelandic national program.
If you missed our shot quality vs quantity post, we suggest going back to read Part 1 & Part 2 before continuing. We are going to break down series based on shot charts. We have also linked the game highlights.
Things to note before diving in:
Corsi = Shot differential at even strength. This includes all shots - on goal, missed blocked attempts.
Expected goal = The expectation that a shot would result in a goal. Factors are shot distance, shot angle, strength of play, and rebound/not rebound.
NYI vs Philly
Game 1 - NYI are out-shot, but are more disciplined with their shot selection and get rewarded with a solid early series lead.
Game 2 - Flyers finally get inside of the house and create the shots they need to beat the Islanders’ stingy defensive scheme. Still, the NYI got their fair share of shots from inside the house.
Game 3 - NYI absolutely dominate the front of the net. The Flyers get minimal penetration inside the house and settle for shots coming from the wall and points. As you’d expect… it doesn’t pay off.
Game 4 - NYI are still living rent-free in the Flyers’ house. The Flyers came to play, though, and are unlucky not to win this game.
Game 5 - The NYI are, once again, out-shot, but have a higher expected-goals number, as evidenced by the volume of orange shots below in prime scoring locations. Carter Hart steals this game.
Game 6 - Both teams made the adjustment to shoot the puck more. NYI deserved to win this game, as they consistently found high danger shots, but Hart again exceeds expectations in the win.
Game 7 - The Flyers performed valiantly to push this to Game 7, but the Islanders overmatched the Flyers for the third straight game. Hart doesn’t get any run support and finally runs out of magic.
Summary - NYI deserved to win this series. Their focus on shot quality over shot quantity paid off. The Islanders were consistent in their approach and eventually were rewarded. Frankly, they deserved to win this sooner.
Philadelphia, you have found yourself a goalie! It only took a few decades... Hart is the real deal, and his efforts won them several games and kept others close enough to potentially sneak out a win.
If I were coaching the Flyers, I would instruct the defensemen to cool it on point shots. Most of their goals came off the rush and from within the house. Simple analysis during the off-season should guide them in the right direction. If anyone has a connection to the Flyers organization… I’d like a word with them.
Expected goals
Islanders 22.98 total (3.13 + 3.31 + 3.61 + 2.53 + 2.39 + 4.61 + 3.4)
Flyers 17.29 total (2.76 + 2.92 + 2.18 + 3.13 + 1.43 + 2.72 + 2.15)
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