In partnership with Mikael Nahabedian, we are going to continue our shot quantity vs shot quality conversation.
Mikael is a scout & statistical analyst with the powerhouse McGill University woman’s program. He also consults for the Icelandic national program.
If you missed them, we suggest going back to read Part 1 & Part 2. We are going to break down series based on shot charts. We have also linked the game highlights.
Things to note before diving in:
Corsi = Shot differential at even strength. Includes all shots - on goal, missed, blocked attempts.
Expected goal = The expectation that a shot would result in a goal. Factors are shot distance, shot angle, strength of play, and rebound/not rebound.
Columbus vs Toronto
This series was a toss-up for many pundits before the puck was dropped. It played out exactly like that. Either team could have won. Truth be told, Toronto probably had a slight edge based on shot quality and should have come out on top.
Also, I’d like to take this moment to remind everyone that luck plays a bigger role in ice hockey than the other major sports. It’s a great reason why the games are so fun to watch. Anything can happen and it could happen from one lucky bounce.
Game 1 - Game one was an even contest where the shot share was 50/50. While both goalies played great and made multiple ridiculous saves. A great low blocker shot from Cam Atkinson was the difference on the day. Adv CBJ.
Game 2 - Toronto was simply the better team. They had both more shots and higher quality of shots. Notice the difference in shots from the house, it’s telling. All even.
Game 3 - From an offensive standpoint this was CBJ’s best game. Toronto got their usual house shots, CBJ forced Toronto into more point shots than they should have taken. CBJ in turn had much better quality shots as can be seen by the number of shots in the house and their highest expected goals of the series.
In Toronto, this was the big collapse after having a 3-0 lead. Adv CBJ.
Game 4 - In a complete reversal, CBJ blows a 3-0 lead. Toronto scores 3 straight in the third period with under 4 minutes to play. Toronto should have scored before then. Again, Toronto has a slight advantage in Corsi & expected goals. All even.
Game 5 - Another game that easily could have gone either way as both teams got quality chances from the house. Toronto had more point shots and didn’t get rewarded. From a goalie perspective, Freddy Andersen had an RVH fail to give Liam Foudy his first NHL goal.
If you don’t know the RVH save is then check out our post on the RVH for non-goalies. Here is Foudy’s first goal:
Summary - As was expected, this series could have gone either way and likely should have tilted toward Toronto.
Toronto had higher expected goals every game and if you play this series 100 times, they likely win at least 60% of them. With a young core that is continuing to improve there is no need to blow up the core. Toronto needs to manage their cap well and add quality fringe pieces.
Columbus did a great job hanging on and opportunistically striking back. They rode some hot goaltending as well. Looking ahead, CBJ has to be happy knowing they were one of the youngest teams. Yet their prospect cupboard is bare. They would like to add offense via free agency. Taylor Hall, perhaps?
Expected goals
Toronto 14.82 total (2.67 + 2.35 + 4.57 + 3.05 + 2.18)
CBJ 10.97 total (2.39 + 1.15 + 3.1 + 2.46 + 1.87)
Next up - Boston vs Tampa
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