Greg here checking in for Part 2/3 on our series on shot charts. In partnership with Mikael Nahabedian, we are going to continue our shot quantity vs shot quality conversation. Earlier, we covered Toronto vs CBJ.
Mikael is a scout & statistical analyst with the powerhouse McGill University woman’s program. He also consults for the Icelandic national program.
If you missed our shot quality vs quantity post, we suggest going back to read Part 1 & Part 2 before continuing. We are going to break down series based on shot charts. We have also linked the game highlights.
Things to note before diving in:
Corsi = Shot differential at even strength. Includes all shots - on goal, missed, blocked attempts.
Expected goals = The expectation that a shot would result in a goal. Factors are shot distance, shot angle, strength of play, and rebound/not rebound.
Boston vs Tampa
Game 1 - Boston generates shots nearly exclusively from the house and left point. Tampa, on the other hand, gets a few chances close to the net, but many are point shots. It was a relatively even game at even-strength, but Boston got a PP goal that made the difference.
Game 2 - Tampa absolutely shells Boston in terms of shots and expected goals. Their heavy volume of elite shot selection leads them to victory.
Game 3 - Tampa smokes Boston 7-1, even as Boston shoots more pucks toward the net at 5v5. Tampa wins this game due to their power play, scoring four goals (versus just one for Boston).
Game 4 - Torey Krug takes five shots (you can notice his cluster at the left point), but again, Tampa proves shot quality beats quantity.
Game 5 - Both goalies came to play in Game 5 in a shot-filled game. Hedman wins it on a curl-and-drag shot from the top of the house for the series clincher.
Summary - In our first shot-chart analysis, we see that CBJ was fortunate to come out with a win over the Maple Leafs. But this time we notice that Tampa thoroughly deserved to win this series. They were dominant at even strength and had elite shot quality. Meanwhile, Boston’s shot quality was much lower due to a reliance on point shots… Which we know suck. Had it not been for Boston’s potent powerplay, this series would’ve been a landslide for Tampa.
Expected goals
Tampa 14.61 total (2.90 + 3.70 + 2.01 + 1.98 + 4.02)
Boston 10.14 total (2.16 + 1.56 + 1.38 + 1.65 + 3.39)
Next up - NYI vs Philly
Did You Enjoy This Newsletter?
Help us spread the ideas within and share it with the people you care about