Where did the slapshot go?
If you’ve been reading our newsletter for any amount of time, you already know that we love leveraging the findings of the analytics community.
Last month, hockey analytics thought leader Micah Blake McCurdy put out a fascinating Twitter thread detailing the trends over time. The TL;DR is there are more wrist/snapshots and far fewer slapshot in the modern game.
Changing Shooting Trends
At even strength, over 25% of shots in the 2007-08 NHL season were slapshots. Today, it’s under 15%. Special teams have undergone dramatic changes, too.
2007-08 season: 35% of shots were slapshots
2019-20 season: 22% of shots were slapshots
During the same timespan, wrist/snapshots grew from 49% to 61% of all shots.
In the 2007-08 season, a shot from the point had a greater than 50% chance of being slapshot. That is no longer the case.
Why?
Slapshots, by nature, mostly come from the points. This makes intuitive sense - plenty of time to get the shot off and power is sometimes preferred over placement from that range.
More teams are looking to optimize their ability to score consistently. Particularly when it comes to the repeatability of offense instead of playing with ‘Lady Luck’, teams have come to the (correct) conclusion that shot quality > shot quantity.
In their efforts to optimize their possessions and chances, they are passing up point shots more regularly. If they do shoot from the point, they are focusing on shots that go beyond trying to beat goalies clean - tips, rebounds, and deflections.
These are more effective tactics than taking a point shot and ‘crashing the net’. In Corey Sznajder’s most recent article, he argues that firing point shots, while ineffective, actually makes some sense, given that NHL defenses allow the top of their defensive zone to be relatively uncovered in their attempt to crowd the middle and low (read: dangerous) parts of the ice.
As such, elite players and teams have found new ways to combat this by leaving point and operating as a fourth forward with more regularity. Take a defenseman like Zach Werenski, who is finding ways to get into the ‘house’ on a consistent basis. It’s a considerable reason why he was the league’s top goal-scoring defenseman in the 2019-20 NHL season.
Further reading - How Zach Werenski scores goals
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