We’ve talked about playing 2v1s from the offensive standpoint. Today, we are going to dive into the flip side - defending those dangerous 2v1 rushes.
Rather than just talking through the strategies, we are going to see what analytics are currently showing us.
To Pass or To Shoot?
The Columbus Blue Jackets Hockey Analytics Conference (CBJHAC) was held in February 2020. Our very own Dan Dukart was a finalist with his work detailing The Benefits of Playing on the Off-Wing. The winner of the data competition of the conference was Nathan DeLara, with his work on the PowerPlay Passing Analysis. We are releasing a Hockey IQ Podcast episode with him in August.
Other research that caught our eye was work done by Steven Czarnecki (@SteCzar) and Matthew Palmeri, who looked in depth at 2v1 rushes. Here are the links to their Slides + Handout Packet + Notes.
There was a simple question, “Do specific events preceding 2v1s have a relationship with goals scored?”
The obvious answer is “yes!”, but let’s dig into what those key findings are. Hint, they line up with the things we explored in our previous post, 2v1 Offensive Rushes (Phew! Glad the math checks out too).
Analytic Findings - Steven & Matthew
1) Passing on a 2v1 increases your chances of scoring by 238%.
2) The faster a player enters the zone, the less likely they are to complete a pass. 2% per foot per second.
3) The further the defender is from the point of entry, the less likely a pass will be completed. 2.7% per foot.
4) The last one is small. but very interesting… There is a 32% increase in goals scored when entering on a defender’s stick side.
Analytic Findings - Nick
Nick Czuzoj-Shulman’s OTTHAJ research (via SportLogiq data) looked explicitly at first pass/shot decisions & outcomes.
1) If a pass was completed and shot on net, those were going in 27% of the time, compared to 15.5% off a ‘direct’ shot.
2) 2v1s have the 3rd highest shooting percentage on the rush, trailing breakaways and 3v1s
3) At the NHL level, 65.3% of the time a pass is attempted
4) Pillow passing (pass off pad) lead to rebounds often, but those are only cashed in ~7% of the time
Matching up with Tactics
Our recommendations are almost identical:
Steven & Matthew:
Pass the puck, if possible
Move the puck before entry
Slow down on the entry
Flip hips and skate forward when defending on stick-side entry
Nick
Passes increase the chance of a goal
Defenders who take away the pass option had better results on average than if they attacked the puck carrier and forced an attempted pass
While pillow passing leads to rebounds often, success rates are too low to be a consistent strategy
Shooting low/short side is better than low/far side. The opposite applies when shooting high in the net
Greg & Dan:
Be a dual-threat by working inside the dots. Make the defender respect your shot and increase the shooting percentage and likelihood of making a successful pass
Slow down so you can read the defense and make a quality decision
Pass as early as possible once crossing the blue line
Open and ready body positioning for the pass receiver
Add deception
Re-Engineering For Defense
Awesome defense in Owen Power’s first NHL game.
Excellent elements from Power… Scanning to understand the timing, keeping his stick in the passing lane, taking away the pass, and added deception.
Further Reading
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